When we all reach for our 2019 NCAA Division 1 College Basketball Tournament brackets after the March 17 pairings are announced, we will notice several recognizable programs among the missing. More than a couple of the so-called power conferences are having down years, largely because some annual tournament fixtures within those conferences are struggling more than usual. With only a handful of games remaining, barring a last-minute rush and some serious conference tournament upsets, the National Invitational Tournament will have some big school names to market next month.
ARIZONA WILDCATS
Once you start signing those “one-and-done” guys, you have to keep doing it. The Arizona program has other issues, of course, but losing DeAndre Ayton without replacing him would be difficult for any program to overcome. But in terms of down years the Wildcats have plenty of company in a lackluster 2018-1919 campaign for the Pacific 12 Conference. Started off fine, but as of February 19th they’d lost seven consecutive conference games.
NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH
Perhaps an early-season home loss to Radford should have been a red flag, but the Irish have simply not been able to overcome the unrelenting Atlantic Coast Conference schedule. No disgrace there, but over time we’ve come to expect more from Notre Dame. In addition, many of the conference losses have been non-competitive.
UCLA BRUINS
Another struggling Pac-12 program. Pre-conference home losses to Belmont and Liberty (by 15 points) and a 29-point drubbing at Cincinnati cost former coach Steve Alford his gig in December, and the Bruins have been wobbly ever since. They can still qualify with a hot finish (a VERY hot finish) over their last five conference games, but the Bruins are currently in the lower half of a what is either a very competitive or mediocre conference.
WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS
Veteran head coach Bob Huggins lost a lot of experience from last year’s Sweet Sixteen squad (including defensive rock Jevon Carter) and only has one senior on the roster. So home losses to a then-unranked Buffalo squad and Western Kentucky in November, plus a December home loss to Rhode Island weren’t totally shocking. Still, it’s a bit unnerving to see a Huggins-coached squad at the very bottom of the Big 12 Conference (where they don’t belong, but that’s another story), having lost 11 of their first 13 conference games.
XAVIER MUSKETEERS
The Musketeers have been an NCAA Tournament constant, and earned a Number One seed for the 2018 version. So after a 29-win campaign, Xavier finds itself near the bottom of the Big East, and is the primary culprit in a down year for the basketball-only conference. Like UCLA, they could still make noise down the stretch, but their last five conference games include two against St John’s and one each with Seton Hall and Villanova. So Xavier, who not only qualifies for the tourney most years but makes some noise despite having never been to a Final Four, might be in a bit of trouble.
AND WHAT ABOUT THE MID-MAJORS?
The Indiana Hoosiers, Oklahoma Sooners, Oregon Ducks, Florida Gators and other recognizable schools from power conferences are in danger of missing the 2019 NCAA Tournament. It happens every year, but what will the beloved Tournament Selection Committee do about replacing those teams? Will they force-feed us the bigger squads with sub-.500 conference records, or will some of the mid-majors who dominate conference play but fail to win their conference tournament get a chance?
I’m looking squarely at the Ohio Valley Conference. Should Belmont and Murray State meet for the conference tournament final, the loser should at least get some consideration for an at-large bid. Both will end up with around 25 wins before the conference tourney even starts, and each has a player who has the attention of NBA scouts (Belmont’s Dylan Windler and Murray State’s Ja Morant).
The Buffalo Bulls of the Mid-America Conference crashed the NCAA Tournament in 2018, knocked off the heavily-favored Arizona Wildcats in the first round and have been ranked for a good portion of 2019. Should they lose in their conference tournament–a real possibility with schools like Bowling Green, Toledo, and Kent salivating for an opportunity to knock them off–they should still get an at-large bid from what has traditionally been a one-bid conference.
Finally, they are doing some serious ballin’ in the Southern Conference. Wofford is undefeated in their first 15 conference games and has a 20-point win at South Carolina. UNC-Greensboro has only five losses, two of them competitive contests at LSU and Kentucky. Furman has already notched 22 wins, including early season wins against defending champion Villanova and 2018 Final Four participant Loyola, both on the road in a span of five days. Only one of those teams will win the Southern Conference Tournament. Will even one of the others get a look for an at-large bid?
PARITY IS COMING
Last year’s tournament shocker, the 16th-seeded Maryland Baltimore County Retrievers historic win over top-seeded Virginia and Loyola’s trek to the Final Four were warning shots. With top college players hanging around for only one season and concentrated within a handful of schools, some of the more experienced mid-major squads can make noise in the NCAA Tournament, given the opportunity.
For the immediate future, it will be interesting to see how the committee plays it, though there’s no reason to think the smaller, one-bid conferences will suddenly see a spike in at-large bids.
After winning 25 of 30 regular-season games or so, to get a guaranteed NCAA Tourney bid a mid-major program still has to win that conference tournament while playing three games in three nights, in some cases. Meanwhile, I can still remember about 25 years ago a prominent Atlantic Coast Conference coach trying to sell the idea that his 6th-place team was deserving of an at-large bid because they were ‘7 and 9 in a power conference.’
There’s something wrong with that.
