The National Basketball Association has resumed play after its annual week-long All-Star Break. Each year from mid-February through early April we see the basketball focus shift away from the NBA to high school and college single-elimination tournaments. Players at those levels leave their skin on the court knowing the game they’re currently in could be their last one of the season. Meanwhile, post-All Star break we’ll see NBA scoring increase as the clear line of demarcation between the haves and the have-nots has been established, defensive intensity wanes and younger players get more minutes. The NBA fan will always find a reason to watch games, but here we are in late-February and while the schedule runs through April 15th, it appears the NBA regular season is over.
The Second Half Is Really the Third Third
It’s much easier to refer to the portion of the schedule following the All-Star break as the second half, but the numbers remind us that two-thirds of the NBA schedule of games have already been played. Most teams had already played at least 55 of their slated 82 games before the break. The Detroit Pistons, with little to play for at this point, have only 25 games remaining after the break including only 11 home games in their mostly empty new arena.
This is the part of the schedule where fans can focus on young player development providing hope for the future or their teams with championship aspirations keeping their top players healthy. The only potential drama will be the race for the final playoff spots in the Western Conference, and this season it will involve Zion Williamson who will attract more interest than usual for those games, especially after missing a huge chunk of the season leading up to the All-Star break.
The Eastern Conference Emboldens Some
The Eastern Conference has been regarded as the weaker of the two conferences for more than a minute, and with good reason. The 2019-20 version once again contains five very strong, though flawed teams, with another (Indiana) just a notch below. But the rest of the 15-team conference is littered with squads that are rebuilding, poorly managed, injury-riddled or some funky combination of all three. As a result, we’re actually hearing crazy talk from teams sitting at 10, 15 or even 20 games below .500 about qualifying for the postseason and, at least mathematically, they aren’t wrong yet.
So while it might make basketball fans queasy hearing teams playing .300 ball through 55 games talking about making a playoff run, the reality is as close as the next inevitable three-game losing streak.
Player Buyouts And Contenders On The Prowl
With a 2020 Western Conference Finals clash featuring the two inhabitants of the Staples Center in Los Angeles a near-certainty, the Lakers and Clippers (among others) are now scouring rosters of also-rans (and there are many) looking for players who are contract buyout candidates capable of filling a need on their rosters.
It’s not really a good look for teams at the bottom of the standings negotiating contract buyouts or players who have already worked out their next destination before the buyout becomes official, but these are the times we’re living in. And we certainly can’t blame a veteran player for wanting to join up with a contender.
There Are No Big Games Remaining On The Schedule
As of February 22, 2020 and with one-third of the schedule remaining, we already know 13 of the 16 post-season qualifiers and two more will merely have to win half of their remaining games to hold onto their current qualifying positions. Only the surprising Memphis Grizzlies, with a young roster and a win total that already exceeds the expectations of most pundits, will have to overcome a difficult late schedule and possible young player fatigue to hold off some Western Conference comp charging at them. Among those teams are the San Antonio Spurs and the Portland Trailblazers—both of whom seldom miss the playoffs—along with the New Orleans Pelicans with a healthy Zion Williamson looking like a real threat to take the final spot.
Unfortunately, history reveals that seventh and eighth seeds have a short postseason journey of about four or five games to look forward to. The experience might be a positive for young teams like Memphis or New Orleans to build on, and the league—with its declining television ratings so far—would salivate over a first-round pairing featuring Zion Williamson versus Lebron James. But even with several regular-season contests between top teams, as well as games with teams fighting for those final playoff spots in March and April, there aren’t any big games remaining in the final two months of the NBA regular season.
More Load Management is Coming
We may not see evidence of it immediately following a week-long break two-thirds into the season, but more load management is coming to an arena near you, and you might already have tickets. As more teams are locked into playoff positions in the coming weeks, some of the sport’s biggest names will take some games off to prepare for the playoff grind. If you’ve already brought tickets to see a star player for the visiting team and a) that team is coming to your town as the first or second leg of back-to-back games, b) your local team is out of the running or c) both, prepare to be disappointed.
It’s Not All Gloomy
If you like offense, then March and April NBA basketball will not disappoint. With non-contenders playing out the string and young players vying for more playing time, defensive resistance will seldom be part of the proceedings. Presumably as some of the playoff hopefuls come closer to mathematical elimination, we’ll get to see some of the seldom-used younger players we’ve enjoyed watching in high school and college finally get some NBA burn, including some call-ups from the G-League. And there’s always a player or two who comes from that league and ends up as part of an NBA team’s rotation.
College tournament brackets and high school, state tournaments will grab the spotlight for many over the next few weeks, and that’s OK. The NBA is merely adhering to its own calendar until the heavyweights take over in May and June.
But the NBA regular season is over.
Photo by Seth Reese on Unsplash
