Imagine graduating from college at age 22, and after a series of promising job interviews you receive a bunch of rejection letters from prospective employers citing a “lack of upside” as the reason. This is the plight of the NBA prospect with the audacity to use all four years of college eligibility before making himself available for the NBA Draft. After reading multiple scouting reports, listening to expert commentary and studying real draft results, it’s easy to conclude that in today’s NBA, being 22 years old—or older—as a first-year player is viewed as a negative. In yet another clear sign of the changing times in the NBA, it now appears that for today’s NBA draftee, 22 is the new 50.
THE COLLEGE SENIOR HAS DISAPPEARED FROM NBA DRAFT NIGHT
The 2018 NBA Draft was held a couple of weeks ago, and of the 60 players selected, only 11 were classified as college seniors, with Duke University’s Grayson Allen being the first chosen at number 21. In 2017, the University of Colorado’s Derrick White was the first senior selected at number 29, while the first 11 players chosen had either completed only one year of college or were named Frank Ntilikina, an 18-year-old international. White was one of only two seniors selected in the first round that year.
When the Sacramento Kings selected the University of Oklahoma’s Buddy Hield at number six in the 2016 NBA Draft, it was the highest pick used on a college senior since 2005, when the Atlanta Hawks selected Duke University’s Shelden Williams at number five. Although Yao Ming was about to turn 22 when he was the top choice by the Houston Rockets in 2002, you’d have to go back to the turn of the century for the last time a college senior was the first pick overall in the NBA Draft, when the then New Jersey Nets selected the University of Cincinnati’s Kenyon Martin in 2000.
Aside from Buddy Hield in 2016, since 2006 there has only been one college senior selected in the top ten of any NBA Draft. In 2015, The Charlotte Hornets used the 9th pick of select the University of Wisconsin’s Frank Kaminsky.
AT 22, YOU’RE UNCLE DREW
For the 2000 NBA Draft, 28 of the 58 players chosen were classified as college seniors. After averaging around 20 seniors selected for the next 15 years, the number has dipped to 15 in 2016, 13 in 2017, and down to 11 this past June. The “one-and-done” rule and the influx of international players have each contributed to this downward trend.
And, of course, with all that money floating around, kids good enough to play in the league aren’t passing up the opportunity to get paid as soon as possible, nor should they.
One 2019 mock draft predicts the first college senior chosen with the 35th pick, while eight of the 14 projected lottery picks just completed high school.
YOU’RE NOT GETTING BETTER, YOU’RE GETTING OLDER
After decades of being primarily a celebration of the four-year college player, the NBA Draft has now become an event for the 19-year-old with one year of college ball under his belt. The player who manages to stick around at the college level for four years is basically ignored until the second round of the draft, and sometimes totally. When players with three or four years of college basketball experience were entering the NBA, perhaps they were more league-ready than the kids who enter now, but they still had room to grow, even physically. But the way top-rated seniors are described now, the assumption is that the level of “upside” is nowhere near that of a 19-year-old if it exists at all, and that what you’ll get forevermore is what you see during the first day of training camp.
An already finished product as good as it will ever get.
The term “NBA-ready”, often used to describe the highly-regarded college basketball upperclassman, almost comes across like a snap in today’s environment.
History has shown us that even the players who enter the NBA at 21 or 22 years of age and manage to stick around for more than a couple of years show improvement over time and enjoy their prime playing years from their mid-twenties until their early-thirties (OK, so LeBron James is a little “different”). Remember how skinny Patrick Ewing was when he was an NBA rookie and how he was considered primarily a defender, rebounder and inside scorer? He eventually filled out physically and blossomed into a lethal perimeter scorer. The successful players will work tirelessly to expand their games, regardless of their age upon entering the league.
COLLEGE SENIOR DRAFTEES “REPRESENTING” IN THE NBA
Players like Minnesota’s Jimmy Butler and Golden State’s Draymond Green were drafted as college seniors — in 2011 and 2012, respectively — and have seven All-Star game selections between them, while Portland’s shooting guard C.J. McCollum, the first college senior chosen in 2013 with the tenth pick, is considered one of the best in the league at his position. None of these players set the league on fire as rookies or even in their second year; they improved over time and each had his breakout year — at least statistically — in season three.
It should also be mentioned that although he may not have the long-term “upside” of some of his draft classmates — particularly those in the high lottery (Ben Simmons, Brandon Ingram, Jaylen Brown to name a few) — a second-round selection who was drafted as a college senior, the Milwaukee Bucks’ Malcolm Brogdon, walked away with the Rookie of the Year Award for the 2016-17 after being the 36th pick in the 2016 NBA Draft.
HIGHER RISK, HIGHER REWARD
To be fair, some of the brightest futures in the NBA belong to players who entered the league one year removed from high school and performed at a high level during their year in college or overseas. We’ve heard about these players for some time and several appear destined to become superstars if they continue on their current track. But even for these talented youngsters, there is a learning curve.
Likewise, for a variety or reasons, there’s no guarantee a 19-year-old will improve to the point of becoming a league fixture. Comb through the draft list of any year and you’ll find plenty of players drafted at age 18 or 19 who were out of the league after riding the bench for a couple of years, if they even lasted that long. Under the current rules, there will be even more 19-year-olds entering the league each year looking for a spot on an NBA roster, and we’ve seen plenty who weren’t quite ready when declaring themselves eligible for the draft.
STAY IN SCHOOL, HUH?
League rules permitting players to enter the NBA Draft one year removed from high school have affected both the professional and college game. The NBA has gotten younger, more inexperienced and less fundamentally sound while the college programs that pursue the five-star high-school athlete suddenly must restock their rosters every season as the game sees a quicker turnover of its top players. Meanwhile, the college player who decides to stick around for four years has been largely reduced to second-round status on draft day with the added burden of having to prove his worth by excelling in the summer league and hoping for an invitation to an NBA training camp on a non-guaranteed deal.
Hardly seems fair, but this is yet another change we’ll just have to get used to. Coaches used to advise the young NBA hopeful to stay in college for another year or two, or even three to hone those skills and develop physically, but given the measurable decline in the number of the NBA-draftable college seniors, it is now much tougher to sell the idea of four years of college ball to a youngster who projects to have NBA-level talent.
