To date, twelve of the sixteen teams that qualified for the 2018 NBA Playoffs have been eliminated. Of those twelve, zero had a legitimate shot at representing their conference at the NBA Finals next month, let alone winning the championship. Of the four remaining teams, one is the defending champion stacked with All-Stars, another has a dynamic backcourt and is considered the biggest threat to the defending champion, still another has folks calling its coach the team’s MVP, especially with two top players missing and the remaining one has LeBron James. Now it gets serious, so it’s time for some 2018 NBA Conference Finals Predictions.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(2) BOSTON CELTICS versus (4) CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
So now we understand how Boston Celtics coach Brad Stevens took an NCAA Division 1 “mid-major” school like Butler University to the tournament finals TWICE. In consecutive years. No way were the Celtics expected to be here — even in the punch-drunk Eastern Conference — without Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward. But the rapid maturity of young wing players like Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum plus the emergence of Terry Rozier satisfied the “next man up” mantra we often hear but seldom witness.
As their second-round opponent the Philadelphia 76ers found out, the Celtics always defend and their veterans were just a little better in that series.
The Cleveland Cavaliers essentially ended their conference semifinal series with the Toronto Raptors by winning Game One on the road (though some would say that’s exactly when the series started). Watching the Raps walk off the court after that loss — as if they’d lost Game Seven — told the entire story. They didn’t believe they could beat the Cavaliers, and the Cavaliers knew this as well.
The result was a sweep where Game Four was a waste of everyone’s time.
After the Kyrie Irving trade, many predicted a Cleveland – Boston Eastern Conference Final matchup. Cleveland struggling out of the gate and making a huge trade in mid-season, and Boston losing Hayward early and Irving late made those predictions look shaky. That they’re both here perhaps points to the overall weakness of the Eastern Conference, but that doesn’t matter now.
It’s difficult to pick against a rested LeBron James, but he’ll have to work much harder to score than he did against Toronto, and some of his teammates will have to play better than they have to this point. We know what to expect from LeBron; the key to this series from Cleveland’s perspective will be the play of a guy like PG George Hill — a good defender — and his ability to neutralize Terry Rozier.
The Celtics have more players going at a consistently high level in this postseason, the clipboard matchup favors them, and they are more solid defensively. But this may be the last time we get to see LeBron James playing at this level of efficiency in the postseason, and he’ll still be the best player on the court. Tough call, but…
PREDICTION: CAVALIERS IN SEVEN.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(1) HOUSTON ROCKETS versus (2) GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
Of all the NBA teams claiming to want to “play like Golden State”, the Houston Rockets have come the closest in terms of roster makeup. But it’s still not enough, in spite of finishing the regular-season with the best overall record and putting this version of the Warriors in the rare position of having to win a road game to advance in the Western Conference playoffs.
The Warriors have been playing like Golden State longer than anyone in the league, all they’ve needed is an excuse. They have one now. Houston will be a formidable foe, but they’d better hold on to homecourt advantage or they’ll never see it again. Clint Capela has proven to be an effective third weapon and held his own against Utah’s Rudy Gobert, and other Rockets can get hot from long-range, but with Kevin Durant the Warriors are not guardable for two weeks.
A physical series is guaranteed, the Warriors will throw multiple defenders at James Harden and the Rockets will hope Chris Paul can withstand the pounding that’s coming whenever he dares venture into the paint. Houston proved in the Utah series they can throw a few elbows of their own, and they’ll always find ways to score, especially at home. The problem is, while both teams are at full strength, the Rockets are still outmanned.
The Warriors will likely harken back to last year’s playoffs where James Harden appeared to run out of gas, and will make him work on both ends of the floor. Should this strategy work, or should the Warriors win one of the first two games in Texas, this series — being touted as one “everyone wanted to see” — could end up being less compelling than the Eastern Conference final.
PREDICTION: WARRIORS IN FIVE.
