Listen – I’m no expert, just a fan trying to sound like one, but I’m allowed to put up an inaccurate 2017-18 NBA Preview just as the experts do. And you can bet I’ll be comparing results at season’s end.
Already considered the league’s weak link, the Eastern Conference took another pounding this past summer without actually playing a game, with several of its top players (Jimmy Butler, Paul George, Carmelo Anthony and Paul Millsap) moving to the Western Conference. As a result, three of the Conference’s playoff entries – Chicago, Indiana and Atlanta – from last season are expected to drop out of playof contention while only one team (Miami) appears ready to step in.
In predicted order of finish and with the acknowledgement that teams 10 through 15 are wholly interchangeable, here is the midrangehoops.com 2017-18 NBA Eastern Conference Preview:
1. CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
Guards
With newly-acquired Isaiah Thomas likely out for a few months with the hip injury, the Cavs’ fictional point guard responsibilities falls to Derrick Rose, though everyone knows who the quarterback really is. Rose will stay within his range offensively and can still get to the basket at times, but the lateral movement defensively will be an issue. Steady veteran Jose Calderon – at age 36 – might be the only pure PG on the roster. Dwyane Wade will turn 36 in January, but has essentially bogarted the starting shooting guard slot away from J.R. Smith, who is better suited to come off the bench, anyway. For a non-starter, Iman Shumpert has been finding his name in trade rumors since his rookie season and has been hampered by injuries and an inability to score, though he works hard defensively. Kyle Korver will turn 37 in March (see a pattern here?) and will bring a deft outside touch (he’d better) to the shooting guard and small forward positions in a pinch.
Forwards
Lebron James will turn 33 in December and is still the best all-around player in the sport. But historically, age 33 has not been kind to NBA players, and Lebron has been playing almost year-round for over a decade. He will still do his thing(s), but will require more regular-season rest, even with the new “player-friendly” schedule in place. And the Cavs immediately transform into something much less than championship-caliber when he’s not on the floor. Jae Crowder isn’t flashy, but is an important piece given his ability to defend on the perimeter and occasionally hit from long-range. The athletic Jeff Green is hit or miss. So is 34-year-old Channing Frye, but he provides quality depth if he’s making perimeter J’s.
Centers
Scorer/rebounder/trade rumor subject/punching bag Kevin Love – perhaps the most maligned 19-point, 11-board guy with an NBA championship ring in recent memory – looks to be the starting center, but he’ll move around as matchups warrant. Perhaps folks were expecting numbers similar to those he posted in his final season with the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2014 (26 points, 13 caroms, 4 assists), but it was his ball on a bad team back then. Tristan Thompson will play when there’s more of a need for rim protection, and he’ll likely play alongside Love at times. Ante Zizic is the only seven-footer on the roster, but isn’t quite ready.
Outlook
The Cavs are a (very) veteran team looking to make at least one last run at a second title. Like last season, they will lose some regular-season ground to teams like Boston and Toronto because they’ll rest players more than most. And someone will have to step in to replace the departed Kyrie Irving and his ability to take over games on those off-nights for Lebron. Despite the number of players over 32 years old and the lack of size, the Cavs are still a lock for a deep post-season run and have to be considered favorites to represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals barring a lengthy Lebron James absence.
2. TORONTO RAPTORS
Guards
Kyle Lowry has transformed himself into a perennial All-Star point guard. You’d better have your sneakers laced up tightly when facing this guy – he is relentless and is now a dangerous threat from all areas of the court. He’ll pester you on defense, too, and forces a couple of turnovers every night. 6’5″ Delon Wright replaces Corey Joseph as the backup and gives a different look; Fred Van Vleet could get light minutes. SG DeMar DeRozan is another mid-range star and underrated passer, just not a threat from 3-point range. After showing improvement in his second year, backup SG Norman Powell looks ready for solid rotation minutes.
Forwards
SF C.J. Miles comes over from Indiana to provide the 3-point shooting coveted by most NBA teams nowadays, but he’s mainly a specialist. Powerful first-round pick OG Anunoby can play inside or out and may be a factor in the second half of the season. The Raptors are hoping ESPN College Basketball analyst Fran Frischilla was correct on Draft Day 2014 when he bluntly proclaimed their selection, Bruno Caboclo of Brazil as being “two years away from being two years away.” PF Serge Ibaka appeared headed for superstardom in Oklahoma City before discovering the 3-point shot, but he still provides rebounding and rim protection, though he doesn’t block or alter shots the way he used to. Pascal Siakam is limited offensively but always gives full effort, especially on the boards.
Centers
Seven-footer Jonas Valanciunas is the prototype of a player who is better than “serviceable” but will never be an All-Star. He’ll give you double-figures in points and rebounds if he doesn’t foul out first. He’ll shoot a high percentage and (thankfully) we haven’t heard anything about him working on a 3-point shot. Lucas Nogueira is a shot-blocker/rebounder with little offensive game who will have to fight off a challenge from 2016 lottery pick Jakob Poeltl for backup minutes at center.
Outlook
The Raps still aren’t taken seriously as a title contender – they’re still at least a top frontline player away – but they are still a problem in the Eastern Conference. A lot will depend on the growth of their younger players coming off the bench and their ability to defend, but the Raptors are the kind of team that can go out in the first round of the playoffs or advance to the Eastern Conference Finals. The performance of their veteran All-Star guard tandem will ultimately determine that. Second round and out.
3. BOSTON CELTICS
Guards
Kyrie Irving allegedly wanted the limelight away from Cleveland, and he finds himself on another talented roster with the Celtics, but he’ll have no one like Lebron to lean on when things get tough, and he’ll find out just how much of a sports town Boston really is if the wins don’t come. He’ll handle the ball more in Boston and embarrass some defenders one-on-one, but it’s winning time in Beantown. Backup PG Marcus Smart is the anti-Kyrie – less flashy and not nearly the offensive threat, but a tough defender and general agitator on the court. Athletic second-year man Jaylen Brown looks about ready to assume the shooting guard slot, but he is still raw and may end up splitting minutes with the undersized Terry Rozier. At least early on, the Celtics will miss the departed Avery Bradley, particularly on the defensive end.
Forwards
Versatile SF Gordon Hayward bolted from Utah and heads to Boston with high expectations, but there will be an adjustment period with so many new teammates, and he’ll have to get his field goal percentages up a tad. He’ll also have a top rookie, Jayson Tatum breathing down his neck for minutes. PF would be the perfect gig for Al Horford next to a legit center, but Marcus Morris gets the gig. Guerschon Yabusele might have an opportunity for minutes on a thin front line.
Centers
Al Horford once again finds himself playing center; for years the Atlanta Hawks couldn’t find an anchor to allow Horford to move to power forward, which seems like a better fit. Folks looking for big scoring numbers from Horford will be disappointed, but he knows how to play, is a perfect fit for an offense featuring screens and ball/body movement and it’s not as if he CAN’T score. Aaron Baynes comes over from Detroit to hit some mid-range jumpers and grab some boards in relief.
Outlook
The Celtics earned top seed in the Eastern Conference in 2016-17, then proceeded to flip their roster over the summer. Their starting backcourt from last season – including leading scorer Isaiah Thomas – is gone. The Celtics will be fine, but don’t be surprised to see them stagger out of the gate in October and November as the new faces adjust to one another. Even with the addition of Kyrie Irving, many still believe Head Coach Brad Stevens to be the real star of the team; the Celtics will play smart and defend while he’s around though they may suffer a bit defensively after losing Avery Bradley and Jae Crowder. They still look capable of an extended playoff run depending upon matchups – a long-limbed team like Milwaukee or a quick team like Washington could give them fits. Eastern Conference Finals.
4. WASHINGTON WIZARDS
Guards
During the 2016-17 season, John Wall finally put his tremendous gifts together and led the Wizards to a 49-win season and Game Seven of the Eastern Conference semifinals. Still not a great perimeter shooter, Wall combined with SG Bradley Beal – a healthy season away from being All-Star material himself – to give the Wizards one of the league’s more potent backcourt duos while also delivering close to 11 assists per game. Backup PG was a problem last season; the Wizards are hoping TIm Frazier can at least provide his usual slick ballhandling and passing. He’s not a scorer. Tomas Satoransky can offer help at both guard spots, and backup SG Jodie Meeks can be lethal when his shot is on.
Forwards
SF Otto Porter is back at a price after the Brooklyn Nets signed him to an offer sheet the Wizards had to match. Porter was one of the more efficient 3-point shooters in the NBA in 2016-17 (at 43 percent) and he does much more than that. Backup Kelly Oubre hasn’t shot it well in his first two seasons but his defensive involvement will keep him on the court until his shot comes around. PF Markieff Morris is just a solid 15-point, 6-rebound guy who can also pass and defend a little. Jason Smith will come off the bench and hit a few mid-range jumpers to spell Morris. MIke Scott is a 3-point option who can play both forward spots.
Centers
Starting center Marcin Gortat is a lot like Toronto’s Valanciunis: he’s good, but more is always expected. He’s not an All-Star, but is an effective rebounder who knows his limitations offensively and is not an interior defender. Veteran Ian Mahinmi is better-than-average as a backup center, but struggles with free throws.
Outlook
The Wizards were better defensively under coach Scott Brooks, and the Wizards are clearly one of the top five teams in the Eastern Conference. Unfortunately, they got no help in the 2017 NBA Draft – having traded both their picks – or in free agency, and the teams above them haven’t slipped. So the veterans will have to continue and even improve their level of play if the Wizards are to advance past the second round of the Eastern Conference playoffs. Prediction: Eastern Conference Semis.
5. MIAMI HEAT
Guards
PG Goran Dragic will attack the rim, hit a 3-pointer, assist on a layup, and steal the ball from a sloppy defender. Backup Tyler Johnson will do the same with athleticism – the Heat don’t lose much when they go to the bench at this position. SG Dion Waiters found his shot last year and also got in faces defensively and managed to drop four dimes (can’t believe I used that term) per game as well. Josh Richardson is going to fight Waiters for minutes by being a do-everything type with exemplary effort. Wayne Ellington is the Heat’s version of the journeyman 3-point specialist.
Forwards
Once third-year SF Justise Winslow gets his mojo back after suffering a season-ending injury last season and being limited to 18 games, the starting gig will be his to keep, despite his struggles on the offensive end. He does everything else. Rodney McGruder is more of a defensive specialist, and Josh Richardson may see time at the 3 spot as well. PF James Johnson is a do-it-all type (just not on the same night) and Kelly Olynyk is one of those “under-the-radar” free agent signings from the summer of 2017. He’ll help in all phases.
Centers
Hassan Whiteside took a circuitous route to the NBA after college, but he’s here to stay as one of the NBA’s more dominant rebounding and shot-blocking centers, and he has also improved his scoring average each year in the league. Late lottery pick Bam Adebayo was superb during the summer league and will likely earn minutes in the rotation just on effort, though he does have some offensive skills. And one can do a lot worse than having Udonis Haslem around as a mentor.
Outlook
The Heat had one of the stronger finishes in the NBA last season winning 30 of their last 41 games. The problem? They lost 30 of their first 41 games to finish at .500, barely missing the playoffs. With Winslow back, Josh Richardson ready to rock, and Dion Waiters showing some consistency, the Heat should have little trouble qualifying for the postseason, where they will be a a problem. If veteran coach Erik Spoelstra can work out backcourt minutes without ruffling feathers, the Heat could win a playoff round or two.
6. MILWAUKEE BUCKS
Guards
Second-year PG Malcolm Brogdon took the starting job away from Matt Dellavedova and kept it last season on his way to the 2017 NBA Rookie of the Year award as a second-round pick (No. 36). Poised, efficient from all areas of the floor and defensive-minded, he also had to somehow impress his boss, future Hall of Fame PG Jason Kidd (No pressure or anything). Dellavedova is limited but can be a pest defensively and score from long-range. SG candidates include Tony Snell and third-year player Rashad Vaughn; starter’s minutes will be new to both. 40-year-old Jason Terry is still around to lend advice and the occasional jumper.
Forwards
SF Khris Middleton is back and healthy and the Bucks are happy to have his well-rounded game on the court. He’s their most dangerous perimeter scorer. Mirza Teletovic can drain 3-pointers all night when he’s hot, but is a defensive liability. PF Giannis Antetokunmpo is a rising superstar who can do everything (EVERYTHING!) except hit 3-pointers (exactly when did that become a disgrace?), and may not have finished growing yet. If he starts knocking down 25-footers with regularity, then it’s time to send everyone home. Jabari Parker was breaking out (like many third-year players do) before suffering his second torn ACL. But he’ll rise above this latest setback, too. In the meantime, 17th pick D.J. Wilson, yet another Buck who can wrap his arms around the arena, will try to make an impression.
Centers
It’s likely that none of the centers on the Milwaukee roster will play starter’s minutes. Greg Monroe was productive last season while playing a little over 20 minutes per game, while for years many observers have felt John Henson would put up impressive rebounding and defensive numbers with more minutes. Second-year man Thon Maker saw his 2016-17 minutes increase later in the season, was solidly in the rotation for the playoff series against Toronto, showed flashes of his ability to rebound, pass, block shots and score from long range and is clearly the Bucks’ center of the future.
Outlook
The Bucks rode Antetokounmpo and a rookie point guard to a playoff spot in 2016-17 where they lost a hard-fought six-game series to the Toronto Raptors. They’ll need to upgrade the shooting guard position, get Jabari Parker back for the stretch run, keep Khris Middleton healthy and resolve the rotating center situation. They’ll return to the postseason, but are still a year away from making serious noise. Likely one-and-done, but they’ll scare the living daylights out of one of the higher seeds.
7. PHILADELPHIA 76ers
Guards
Top overall pick Markell Fultz gets the title as starting point guard, but the offense will run through Ben Simmons. Fultz is no slouch, however. He can get to the basket, score from distance and distribute. T.J. McConnell snatched the starting gig from Sergio Rodriguez last season and proved to be a slick passer with a penchant for creating turnovers (but he can’t shoot threes (sigh)). Veteran Jerryd Bayless can score, but is a PG in height only. Veteran SG J.J. Redick will provide leadership and the ability to spread the floor. Nik Stauskas is J.J Redick-lite. Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot was surprisingly effective as a rookie in a little under 20 minutes per game, but minutes might be scarce this season.
Forwards
SF Robert Covington was an unknown who was in Philly for the bad times, kept his head up and was professional every night on both ends while losing in empty buildings. Now he gets to play with some talented youngsters in front of sellout home crowds with a chance to win games. He’ll continue to spread the floor and steal the ball on occasion. Justin Anderson will bully his way into minutes with all-out play. Furkan Korkmaz may have to wait a year to show off his 3-point range. PF Ben Simmons is finally healthy and can pass, rebound, start a break, finish a break and get anywhere he pleases on the court (but none of that matters because he doesn’t shoot threes, right?). And he’s considered a rookie. Dario Saric finished strong last season and was runner-up in the Rookie of the Year voting. He can board, pass and will become more consistent with his perimeter shooting. Hard-working vet Amir Johnson will get time in, especially when Simmons is at another position. It just breaks my heart to see him shooting 3-pointers.
Center
Despite having played in only 31 NBA games, Joel Embiid‘s performance compelled the Sixers to make a long-term commitment. It’s a gamble due to his health history, but if he plays they’ll get their money’s worth. Already a fan favorite, Embiid displayed offensive chops few knew he owned; folks already knew about the defense and rebounding. Time will reveal his biggest weakness to be social media. Jahlil Okafor has gone from lottery pick to starter to backup center to afterthought, but for now he’ll be needed as insurance against an Embiid injury. Okafor has great footwork and has little trouble scoring, but needs to shore up on the defensive end. Richaun Holmes, like Covington, has been in Philly for a few years, continued to play hard through the losing and will get minutes if the choice is defense.
Outlook
After patiently spending the past five years “trusting the process” Sixers’ fans are understandably ready to reap some benefits. This is a very deep, yet inexperienced roster, and coach Brett Brown has the pleasant task of working out rotation minutes while dealing with the unpleasant reality of expectations that might run a bit high at this stage. They’ll win some games by 30, lose some games by 30 and likely show enough improvement to land a low seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs in spite of playing young guy defense. They have at least two potential superstars in Embiid and Simmons and possibly a third if Fultz lives up to his draft position. But a little more patience will be required. Prediction: One-and-done and some valuable postseason experience, but downgraded if Embiid has another extended absence.
8. DETROIT PISTONS
Guards
PG Reggie Jackson is back as the starter; he wasn’t really healthy for much of 2016-17. Not an upper-echelon guy at the position, but he can play. Good skills with the ball, below-average defensively. Ish Smith can be effective when he’s not outrunning the ball; he filled in nicely for Jackson last year and can be a difficult cover due to his speed even though he has limited range (translation: he doesn’t shoot the…never mind). Langston Galloway has carved out a nice career after going undrafted out of St. Joseph’s College a few years ago. He was a steady player on some horrible Knicks’ teams – nice player to have around and can play both guard positions. SG Avery Bradley fills the Kentavious Caldwell-Pope spot with about the same defensive tenacity and more consistent shot. He has expanded his range in recent years. Luke Kennard was solid in summer league play, can really shoot it and appears to be in line for rotation minutes behind Bradley.
Forwards
SF Tobias Harris won’t dazzle anyone with statistics, but he can play inside or out, board, defend and shoot with decent percentages. Stanley Johnson looked to be a top rookie in 2015-16, but fell off last year as his shot abandoned him. PF John Leuer came out of nowhere last season and eventually earned starter’s minutes while averaging double-figures in scoring for the first time in his career. Not the strongest rebounder, however. Henry Ellenson was the 2016 first-round pick and the Pistons hope he is ready to grow into more minutes. Journeyman Anthony Tolliver is primarily a long-distance specialist.
Center
Andre Drummond‘s strength’s continues to be rebounding, shot-blocking (though he fell off some in 2016-17) and durability. And he still manages to average around 14 points per game in spite of an inability to make free throws – the career mark is below 40 percent. Boban Marjanovic is strictly an inside scorer and rebounder for a few minutes.
Outlook
After qualifying for the postseason in 2015-16, the Pistons missed out on the party last season with 37 wins and a 10th place finish in a weak Eastern Conference. In 2017-18, the Pistons are relying on a healthy Reggie Jackson, improved play from youngsters like Stanley Johnson and Henry Ellenson, a spark of energy from Avery Bradley and at least 50 percent free-throw shooting from Andre Drummond to get them a low playoff seed. They’ll face a challenge from teams like Charlotte, but are looking at only 4 or 5 extra games in April should they finish 8th in the conference.
9. CHARLOTTE HORNETS
Guards
PG Kemba Walker averaged 23 points per game in 2016-17 and was selected to participate in the NBA All-Star Game for the first time. Walker isn’t a “classic” point guard, but he still manages close to 6 assists per game and is very adept at creating space for his own shot as well. Michael Carter-Williams won the 2014 NBA Rookie of the Year Award as a member of the 76ers, and has struggled with his shot and turnovers ever since while bouncing around to what is now his third team in three years. SG Nicolas Batum is one of the league’s more versatile players when healthy. Not a great scorer, but can score from deep, rebound, pass (6 assists per), and defend. He’ll be out for a couple of months to start the season. Jeremy Lamb is next in line, and while he’s not as rounded as Batum, he can score given minutes and is a good rebounder for his size (6’5″). Lottery pick Malik Monk will welcome the opportunity to show his skills at either guard position after being selected lower than anticipated (10th) in the 2017 NBA Draft, despite being considered one of the best shooters in the class.
Forwards
SF Michael Kidd-Gilchrist biggest achievement in the 2016-17 season was playing 81 games. His relentless style usually results in missed games; he played in 62 games in 2013-14, then 62 games combined in the two seasons that followed. Outstanding rebounder at his position and can now be relied on for about 12-13 points per game, though he rarely strays outside his shooting range. Rookie and second-round pick Dwayne Bacon has impressed in summer league and preseason games and could earn a rotation spot, especially with Batum sidelined. PF Marvin Williams has never lived up to (or lived down) being selected ahead of Chris Paul 12 years ago, but he’s a reliable pro (another one of those Seattle-area guys) who will defend and spread the floor. Frank Kaminsky had some good moments in 2016-17, but shot the ball better in college than he has in the NBA.
Centers
The Atlanta Hawks traded Dwight Howard to Charlotte two weeks after he announced his intentions to spend the summer working on a 3-point shot. Likely a coincidence, but Howard has now bounced around a bit after spending his first eight NBA seasons with the Orlando Magic and is now on his fourth team in six years. And no team that acquires him will be satisfied until they drop the expectation of getting the Orlando version of Dwight Howard. Yes, he has lost some of his explosiveness, but he’s still good for 60 percent shooting and about 12 boards per game. His scoring has suffered in recent years because the game has moved outside that doggone arc, resulting in fewer opportunities. His shot-blocking has likely suffered for the same reason. Cody Zeller is the walking definition of a “serviceable backup center”.
Outlook
In 2015-16, the Charlotte Hornets won 48 games and earned a postseason berth as the Eastern Conference’s 6th seed, losing a seven-game series to the Miami Heat in the first round. In 2016-17, the Hornets won 12 fewer games and missed the playoffs with an 11th place finish. Their defense fell off considerably for some reason, and coach Steve Clifford will push them on that end of the floor. The Hornets will likely battle the Pistons for Eastern Conference’s 8th seed, but are looking at a first-round exit should they get it.
10. BROOKLYN NETS
Guards
2015 NBA Draft lottery pick D’Angelo Russell comes over after two years with the Los Angeles Lakers and will have a fresh start for a franchise screaming for star power. He’ll share ballhandling duties with Jeremy Lin in the starting unit running the “pace and space” (with tons of screens) offense and is only 21 years old. Lin couldn’t shake the injury bug in 2016-17 and the offense was much crisper when he played. Spencer Dinwiddie is one of the backups; the Nets signed him in December 2016 and he got better as the season progressed. Local product Isaiah Whitehead logged more minutes than expected and played well, already strong enough to play NBA defense and just needing to work on his decision-making and his shot. Another local product Sean Kilpatrick (Yonkers) came out of nowhere to become the Nets’ third-leading scorer, while Caris Levert overcame the foot injuries that slowed him him in college and showed some versatility.
Forwards
SF DeMarre Carroll is familiar with Nets’ coach Kenny Atkinson and the offense, having been together in Atlanta. Carroll will provide experience, defense and long-distance shooting. Allen Crabbe, whom the Nets coveted for over a year, brings his sharpshooting in from Portland and he’ll also get heavy minutes with the Nets having so many interchangeable parts. Joe Harris is yet another 3-point guy; minutes will be tough. PF Rondae Hollis-Jefferson brings quickness and defense to that position as the Nets play small. Trevor Booker was one of the good news stories from last season, providing rebounding, defense, hustle and toughness with a dab of scoring. Quincy Acy was added late last season and is back with more tenacious play.
Centers
Timofey Mozgov came over along with Russell in the trade that sent long-time Nets’ center Brook Lopez to the Lakers. Mozgov is not nearly the scorer Lopez is, but he’s a better defender/rebounder, and the coaching staff is looking to transform him into a 3-point shooter as they did with Lopez last season. The Nets feel they got a steal in the 2017 NBA Draft landing Jarrett Allen with the 22nd pick. Like most 19-year-olds, he needs to get stronger and develop some offensive moves, but he moves well and competes on defense. Tyler Zeller is the other big on the roster; not a bad backup.
Outlook
The Nets feel like they can qualify for the postseason in 2018. Even in the Eastern Conference, that may be asking a lot at this point in their rebuilding process. Even if the Nets increase their 2016-17 win total (20) by 100 percent, they’ll finish the season under .500. A 15-game improvement would be remarkable, considering the are still feeling the effects of the trade that left the Boston Celtics with many of the Nets’ first-round draft picks for several years. They played well during the preseason and the new additions combined with improvement on the defensive end should enable the Net to begin a slow climb up the conference ladder. The program is in place, but more talent is needed. At best, a surprise but unsuccessful run at the 8th seed as late as March. Improved, but still a lottery team, and Cleveland has their pick.
11. ORLANDO MAGIC
Guards
PG Elfrid Payton runs the show. He’s a distributor and ball hawk who rebounds well at his position but doesn’t have great range on his shot; with all that hair in front of him his view of the rim is obstructed. Veteran backup D.J. Augustin is more offensive-minded, while Shelvin Mack is good enough to challenge for the primary backup spot. SG Terrence Ross is capable of offensive explosions but looks to find consistency as the starter. Hard-working Jonathan Simmons arrives from San Antonio and will be there to pick up the slack in case Ross doesn’t deliver. Arron Afflalo can still provide scoring in an emergency.
Forwards
SF Evan Fournier has developed into a reliable scorer with range whose scoring average has improved in each of his five NBA seasons. Mario Hezonja was the Magic’s lottery pick in 2015, and they’ll expect him to earn more minutes as a versatile wing. To date, he just hasn’t shot or defended well enough to justify rotation minutes. PF Aaron Gordon is another Magic lottery pick who enters Year 4 having reportedly added a perimeter jumper to his skill set. The team could use better rebounding numbers as well. 2017 lottery pick Jonathan Isaac‘s offense is lagging behind his defense, but the Magic will welcome anyone interested in stopping people, though Isaac does occasionally flash some perimeter offensive skills. Only experience and bulk are needed.
Centers
Nikola Vucevic gives the Magic a reliable low-post scorer and rebounder who can pass a little, but needs a defensive-minded cohort on the frontline. Seems like he’s been around forever; he’s only 27. Bismack Biyombo appeared to be the rebounder/rim protector the Magic were looking for, but his offense is bad enough to put his team at a disadvantage on that end of the court. Marreese Speights is around for mid-range bench scoring, and has a championship ring to flash.
Outlook
It seems the Magic have been participating in the NBA Draft Lottery forever, and they have amassed some young talent who will now be expected to mature quickly. In the Eastern Conference, there is a real opportunity to land a postseason spot as a low seed. Frank Vogel showed he had some coaching ability at Indiana, and it’s time for the Magic to begin the climb up the standings. They should also be in the hunt for the 8th seed, but will ultimately find themselves back in the lottery once again.
12. NEW YORK KNICKS
Guards
Journeyman PG Ramon Sessions appears to be the starter for now but may eventually be supplanted by another vet, Jarrett Jack (should he make the final roster) who is returning from major knee surgery. Both are best suited for backup roles and would merely be holding the spot until rookie Frank Ntilikina is ready. No one knows when that will be because injuries have caused him to miss summer league, parts of training camp and most of the preseason. Early returns show a good feel for the game and at least a defensive stance. SG Tim Hardaway, Jr. returns as a more expensive version of the player the Knicks originally drafted in 2013. He’ll launch from anywhere and finish on the break, but like most of his teammates will be a non-factor on defense. Second-round pick Damyean Dotson showed some scoring potential over the summer and might be available for some cameo appearances or even more.
Forwards
SF Courtney Lee is one of a handful of Knicks who will make a serious effort on the defensive end, and he’ll score most of his points from beyond the arc. But if the Knicks are serious about rebuilding (they probably aren’t), Lee will probably be moved to a contender later in the season. Doug McDermott comes over as part of the Carmelo Anthony trade and can really shoot from long range, but doesn’t do enough otherwise to stay on the court. Lance Thomas defensive efforts will earn him some minutes. The Knicks are now PF Kristaps Porzingis‘ team. At age 22 he’s probably not ready for the responsibility, but the Knicks have previously tagged several big-ticket veteran players with that same label who weren’t ready for it, either. Obviously talented, his durability is now being questioned after a series of nagging injuries. At his size, he needs more of an inside component to his game as well, and joins most of his teammates with the opportunity to develop some defensive instincts. Michael Beasley can score in bunches, but so can the guy he’s guarding. Ditto Mindauskas Kuzminskas, though he had some good moments last season off the bench.
Centers
The Knicks are actually considered to be “deep” at the center position – the one position the rest of the league appears to be rapidly phasing out. Enes Kanter comes over from OKC and brings efficient low-post offensive play and rebounding, but little defensive resistance. Willy Hernangomez will definitely play major minutes – if not start – off his rookie season where he displayed excellent footwork and earned a spot on the 2017 All-Rookie First Team. He brings the same strengths and weaknesses as Kanter does. Kyle O’Quinn is more versatile than Kanter and Hernangomez, but not as polished offensively. He usually puts up good numbers in limited minutes and could be an asset on a contending team. Joakim Noah could help if he regains some of his form from 4-5 years ago, but injuries have slowed him down considerably.
Outlook
The Knicks have not qualified for the postseason since 2013, and after spending over two years devaluing him, finally bid adieu to their franchise player, Carmelo (“We Can Miss The Playoffs Without You”) Anthony. Knicks’ management has claimed to be moving towards a youth movement, but some of their off-season moves make you wonder. They have a few talented young players, but this continues to be a franchise without a plan. And coach Jeff Hornacek will have his hands full trying to get this group to defend consistently. In spite of that, the Eastern Conference will reward mediocre play and lucky bounces with the possibility of an low playoff seeding, and the Knicks can give their patient fan base hope until around March before fading back to the draft lottery for 2018.
13. INDIANA PACERS
Guards
PG Darren Collison has spent much of his career as a backup, and has performed well enough in that role to be considered good enough to start. As a starter, he’s not considered a top PG, but can produce in many areas. Cory Joseph comes over from Toronto to play similar backup role and provides steady play, but nothing spectacular. Joseph Young is still around, but needs to improve the shooting percentages. SG Victor Oladipo comes over from OKC in the Paul George trade and will take on more of a leadership role while providing two-way impact. He’s not a great shooter, but can score in a variety of ways and he’ll defend. Lance Stephenson brings energy and toughness off the bench, but the lack of a reliable shot limits his effectiveness. Damien Wilkins survives the final cut at 40-years-old.
Forwards
SF Bogan Bogdanovic is in the NBA because of his ability to shoot 3-pointers. We could see Lance Stephenson slide to this spot at times, as well, especially with Glenn Robinson III sidelined for much of the season. PF Thaddeus Young has been quietly effective throughout his 10-year career – he can score from mid-range, rebound, defend and knows his limits offensively. Domantas Sabonis was called upon to be the dreaded “stretch four” in OKC last season, but seems capable of much more than that. Rookie T.J. Leaf will fight for the scraps for now.
Centers
Third-year C Myles Turner is a quick study, and is now one of the centerpieces of the Pacers’ franchise. The progress is measurable – Turner can make noise on both ends of the floor. The scoring and rebounding numbers will go up, and the range has increased as well. 13-year veteran Al Jefferson has always been able to score; he’s a good fit for the second unit. Second-round pick Ike Anigbogu will watch and learn this year.
Outlook
With the Paul George trade to Oklahoma City. the Pacers are one of several Eastern Conference teams, along with New York, Chicago and Atlanta, to lose their best player to a Western Conference foe (If you want to nitpick, you could include the Brooklyn Nets (Brook Lopez) as well). They also have some young talent, and must establish a go-to scorer. Like several other teams, they will likely be in the late-season mix for 8th seed in the Eastern Conference while sporting a record well below .500. After finishing 7th last season, it’s lottery time.
14. CHICAGO BULLS
Guards
Second year PG Kris Dunn was projected to be last year’s top rookie, according to a poll of his peers. Didn’t quite work out in Minnesota, but Chicago is rebuilding so Dunn has a chance to work out the kinks. Defensively he is fine, but appeared to lose all confidence in his shot. Jerian Grant will get minutes here as well while sharpening the point guard instincts. Cameron Payne will miss at least the first half of the season. SG Zach Lavine will return from knee surgery and claim the starting job. It remains to be seen how much explosiveness will return, but Zach had developed into a good scorer during his three years Minnesota, shooting a good percentage from all areas of the floor. Denzel Valentine should get some experience while Lavine recovers. Valentine showed some ballhandling skills in limited action last season, but the shot needs work. Justin Holiday deserves minutes somewhere in the rotation. He was one of the few steady performers for the Knicks last season and has decent range on his shot.
Forwards
For now, Paul Zipser looks to be the starting small forward after making only 44 appearances in 2016-17, but he probably won’t get starter’s minutes. Quincy Pondexter will get garbage-time run. Guys like Valentine or Holiday could slide here as well. PF’s Nikola Mirotic and Bobby Portis were in a battle for the starting gig and both bring something different to the court. Mirotic likes to play out on the perimeter; Portis is more of an inside player and has posted impressive rebound numbers in limited playing time. Rookie Laurie Markkanen will battle for minutes later in the season and may eventually be the most versatile of the group.
Centers
Robin Lopez is the defense and rebounding half of the Lopez twins, he seldom strays outside the painted area on offense and shoots a high percentage. But he’s probably more of a backup center on a good team. Cristiano Felicio is the more athletic of the two. The minutes will probably be split evenly, with Markkanen filling in at times.
Outlook
This will be a developmental season for the Chicago Bulls, who qualified for the postseason in 2016-17 with a .500 record and gave the Celtics a scare in the first round. Most of the veterans from that team (Jimmy Butler, Dwyane Wade, Rajon Rondo, etc.) are gone, and the Bulls will let youngsters like Dunn, Lavine, Zipser, Valentine, Portis, etc., take their lumps. This will be a long season which will culminate with an appearance at the annual NBA Draft Lottery in May.
15. ATLANTA HAWKS
Guards
PG Dennis Schroeder, by default, becomes the go-to guy on this Hawks’ roster. That’s probably not the ideal role for him. He averaged 18 ppg in 2016-17 as the second option. Malcolm Delaney did OK in a reserve role last season, but isn’t a threat offensively. SG Kent Bazemore will also be asked to carry more of the scoring burden, but that would essentially transform him into a volume shooter, which isn’t his style. Marco Belinelli has carved out a 10-year career on the strength of his perimeter shooting.
Forwards
2016 Lottery pick Taurean Prince will get every opportunity to live up to his draft position in 2017-18 as the starting small forward. Prince looks to have the well-rounded game and work ethic necessary to take advantage of increased minutes, and the Hawks trusted him enough to start him in their six playoff games last season. DeAndre Bembry is the backup and put himself in position for a longer look with a brilliant summer league performance. Experienced PF Ersan Ilyasova will work hard at both ends, hit a few 3’s, grab a few boards and keep the starting minutes warm for eventual replacement John Collins, the Hawks 2017 first-round draft selection. Collins turned a few heads during summer league play with his aggressive board play and ability to finish around the basket. Luke Babbitt provides another frontcourt perimeter shooter to fit the Hawks’ offensive scheme.
Centers
Starting center DeWayne Dedmon is another Hawks’ player who will see a large spike in minutes played after bench roles in Orlando and San Antonio. He’ll rebound and defend the low-post effectively and he’ll score primarily on putbacks and short jumpers. Mike Muscala is more of a floor-spacer, and he’ll grab a few boards. MIles Plumlee gets blowout minutes.
Outlook
Coach Bud(enholzer) will get the most out of a Hawks’ roster bereft of veteran star power, but they’ll simply be out-manned most nights. Just a few seasons ago the Hawks won 60 games and had the best record in the Eastern Conference, but got swept in the conference finals by the Cavaliers. Seems they dismantled that team too soon, with Paul Millsap the most recent defection. The next couple of seasons will feature sparsely-attended home games and lots of losing. It didn’t have to be this way. Not yet. Deep lottery, as in Michael Porter/Marvin Bagley sweepstakes.
Now let’s all watch the Atlanta Hawks go out and win the Eastern Conference…
